Funding is back to firmly positive and open interest is climbing while spot volume lags — a market pushed by leverage, not conviction. We have taken a little off two satellite positions that ran hard and moved the proceeds to the reserve. Nothing dramatic; just staying honest about risk.
Blog
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Position Sizing: The One Rule We Never Break
No single satellite position starts larger than we would be willing to see fall 80%. That one rule has saved us more money than any call we have ever made. You cannot control whether a thesis is right; you can always control how much it costs you to be wrong.
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Weekly Market Note: Rotation Out of Majors
We are seeing early signs of capital rotating from the majors into higher-beta names — the classic late-cycle pattern. We are letting our satellite sleeve run but tightening our mental stops and refusing to raise position sizes into strength. Rotations like this end faster than they begin.
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Our Framework for Evaluating a New Token
Before anything touches the satellite sleeve it has to clear a checklist: a working product with real users, a credible team with public track records, a token that actually accrues value from the network’s use, transparent supply and unlock schedules, and liquidity deep enough to exit. Most things fail at step one. That is fine — the job is saying no.
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Reader Question: Is It Too Late to Start?
A new reader worries they have ‘missed it.’ Our answer is the same whatever the price: your time in the market and your position sizing matter far more than your entry date. Start small, automate a weekly buy you will not miss, and give yourself a multi-year horizon. If a position would keep you up at night, it is too big.
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Weekly Market Note: Liquidity Is Thin Into Summer
Order books are thinner than usual and moves in both directions are being exaggerated by low volume. We read thin-liquidity spikes as noise, not signal, and we do not chase them. The model portfolio is unchanged this week; the reserve stays dry.
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Stablecoins Are Not All the Same — A Risk Primer
Treat ‘stable’ as a claim to verify, not a guarantee. Ask three questions: what backs it, who audits that backing and how often, and can you actually redeem at par in size. Fully-reserved, regularly-attested fiat stablecoins sit at one end; algorithmic designs that lean on reflexive demand sit at the other, and we have watched several of those go to zero.
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Rebalancing: When and Why We Trim Winners
Rebalancing feels wrong because it means selling the thing that is working. But a position that has doubled is now twice the risk it was when you sized it. Once a quarter we trim anything that has drifted more than five points above its target weight and top up what has lagged. It is unglamorous and it is most of the job.
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Understanding Layer-2 Rollups Without the Jargon
A rollup batches many transactions off the main chain and posts a compressed proof back to it, so you get cheaper fees while inheriting the base layer’s security. Optimistic rollups assume batches are honest and allow a challenge window; zk-rollups prove validity up front with cryptography. For an investor the practical question is simpler: real usage, real fees paid, and who actually controls the sequencer.
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Weekly Market Note: Funding Rates and What They Tell Us
Perpetual funding has flipped positive across the majors. Historically that signals crowded longs. We stay patient and keep a cash reserve for the next flush.